Next Express Entry Draw Prediction
Nobody can predict the next draw cut-off exactly — IRCC doesn't announce draws in advance. What we can show is what the last few rounds of each type looked like, and how often that pattern has held for the next round. Estimates only, not official.
Next draw outlook: key facts
- Latest round
- #447 — Trades occupations, Oct 1, 2026, cut-off 476
- CEC: last 3 cut-offs
- 518, 519, 521 (range 518–521)
- How reliable recent ranges are
- In the last 24 months, 45% of 123 rounds landed inside the previous 3 rounds' range of the same type, and 72% within ±10 points of it
- Most predictable type
- Canadian Experience Class: 92% of rounds within ±10 of the previous range
- Important
- IRCC does not announce draws or cut-offs in advance. These are patterns in past data, not a forecast.
Updated
Recent cut-offs and outlook by draw type
Computed from IRCC's published rounds as of round #447 (Oct 1, 2026). "Recent range" is the lowest to highest of the last 3 cut-offs of that type. "Held within ±10" is how often, over the last 24 months, the next round landed within 10 points of that range.
| Draw type | Last 3 cut-offs | Recent range | Held within ±10 | Avg gap | Next round around* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades occupations | 476 (Oct 2026), 477 (Apr 2026), 505 (Sep 2025) | — | 75% (3/4) | 182 days | Too few recent rounds — no outlook |
| Canadian Experience Class | 518 (Sep 2026), 519 (Sep 2026), 521 (Sep 2026) | 518–521 | 92% (33/36) | 17 days | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Provincial Nominee Program | 725 (Sep 2026), 734 (Sep 2026), 697 (Aug 2026) | 697–734 | 59% (29/49) | 15 days | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Senior managers with Canadian work experience | 389 (Sep 2026), 392 (Jul 2026), 429 (Mar 2026) | 389–429 | too few rounds | 98 days | Dec 23, 2026 |
| Healthcare and social services occupations | 475 (Sep 2026), 475 (Jun 2026), 467 (Feb 2026) | 467–475 | 82% (9/11) | 65 days | Nov 8, 2026 |
| Physicians with Canadian work experience | 198 (Sep 2026), 223 (Jun 2026), 169 (Feb 2026) | 169–223 | too few rounds | 98 days | Dec 10, 2026 |
| French-language proficiency | 382 (Aug 2026), 391 (Aug 2026), 399 (Jul 2026) | 382–399 | 68% (15/22) | 24 days | Gap already longer than average (last round Aug 19, 2026) |
| Transport occupations | 470 (Aug 2026), 430 (Mar 2024), 435 (Dec 2023) | — | too few rounds | — | Too few recent rounds — no outlook |
| Skilled military recruits | 368 (Jul 2026) | — | too few rounds | — | Too few recent rounds — no outlook |
* Last round of that type plus the average gap over the last 12 months. IRCC can hold a round earlier, later or not at all.
How to read this
The table only summarizes the past. IRCC decides each round's type and size, and the cut-off is whatever score the last invited candidate had. Large rounds pull cut-offs down; a pause between rounds lets the pool fill with higher scores. That is why some types, like Canadian Experience Class, move in a narrow band while others — PNP and French-language rounds in particular — can jump by dozens of points.
If your score is near a type's recent range, compare it with the full draw history and check that you are eligible for that type. If it is well below, the score guide shows which changes add the most points. You can see where a specific score stands on pages like Is 470 a good CRS score?.
Method
- Data: IRCC's rounds of invitations, checked every 6 hours; this page is rebuilt when a new round appears.
- Only draw types with at least 3 rounds in the last 12 months get a range and a date.
- The backtest applies the same rule to every round of the last 24 months that had 3 earlier rounds of its type. Nothing is fitted or tuned. More on our sources in the methodology.
FAQ
When is the next Express Entry draw?
IRCC does not announce draw dates in advance. In the last 12 months rounds of each type came every 17 days (CEC), 15 days (PNP), 98 days (Senior managers), 65 days (Healthcare), 98 days (Physicians), 24 days (French) on average, so the "around" dates in the table are only what those averages would give.
Can the next CRS cut-off be predicted?
Not reliably. Over the last 24 months only 45% of rounds fell inside the range of the previous 3 rounds of the same type. Cut-offs depend on how many invitations IRCC decides to issue and on who is in the pool that day.
How is the cut-off decided?
IRCC chooses the round type and the number of invitations. The cut-off is the score of the lowest-ranked candidate invited; it is a result of the round, not a target set in advance.
What is the tie-breaking rule?
If several candidates have the cut-off score, IRCC invites those who submitted their Express Entry profile earliest, up to the round's limit.
Why are PNP cut-offs so high?
Candidates in PNP rounds already have a provincial nomination, which adds 600 points, so their scores are usually above 700.
Updated Oct 3, 2026 (latest round #447, Oct 1, 2026). Source: IRCC, Express Entry rounds of invitations (canada.ca).